Thoughts

User Tools

Site Tools

Trace:
okenso

Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revisionPrevious revision
Next revision		Previous revision
okenso [2025/02/06 16:27] – adminokenso [2025/02/06 16:54] (current) – admin
Line 1: Line 1:
-=== La Nina and Oklahoma Summer Precipitation ===+==== La Nina and Oklahoma Summer Precipitation ====
  
 //from 2012?// //from 2012?//
-== NCEP analysis ==+=== NCEP analysis ===
 Figures are from:  Figures are from: 
 [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/EC_LNP_index.shtml | ENSO Temperature & Precipitation Composites]] [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/EC_LNP_index.shtml | ENSO Temperature & Precipitation Composites]]
Line 14: Line 14:
 {{:elnino.jja.precip.gif}} {{:elnino.jja.precip.gif}}
 ------ ------
-== Reinvestigate NCEP data ==+=== Reinvestigate NCEP data ===
  
 Obtain daily data from [[ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/CPC_UNI_PRCP/GAUGE_CONUS/]] for years 1948 through 2010. (The missing data for day 20070226 was faked by substituting an average of 20070225 and 20070227).  Composite into 756 months. Analyze with Python: Obtain daily data from [[ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/CPC_UNI_PRCP/GAUGE_CONUS/]] for years 1948 through 2010. (The missing data for day 20070226 was faked by substituting an average of 20070225 and 20070227).  Composite into 756 months. Analyze with Python:
Line 42: Line 42:
  
  
-The average t-value in the box is {{{t=-1.25}}}.  The t-value of average rain in the box is {{{t=-1.55}}}, and {{{p=.07}}}.  The fraction of the valid data area that lies within the box is {{{f=0.048}}}.  Note that in my [[http://tinyurl.com/windfarm-precip | windfarm study]] I looked for {{{p<.05f}}} to declare significance. Some details of the statistical analysis will appear below.+The average t-value in the box is ''t=-1.25''.  The t-value of average rain in the box is ''t=-1.55'', and ''p=.07''.  The fraction of the valid data area that lies within the box is ''f=0.048''.  Note that in my [[http://tinyurl.com/windfarm-precip | windfarm study]] I looked for ''p<.05'' to declare significance. Some details of the statistical analysis will appear below.
  
 ------ ------
Line 75: Line 75:
 {{:jjad1950.png}} {{:jjad1950.png}}
  
- * To see such a figure for all years, go to [[http://12characters.net/explore/JJAanomaly.html | slide show of JJA rain fall anomalies]]. +  * To see such a figure for all years, go to [[http://12characters.net/explore/JJAanomaly.html | slide show of JJA rain fall anomalies]]. 
- * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jjasst.html | slide show of JJA SST anomalies ]] +  * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jjasst.html | slide show of JJA SST anomalies ]] 
- * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jja500.html | slide show of JJA 500 mb anomalies ]]+  * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jja500.html | slide show of JJA 500 mb anomalies ]]
  
 === Statistical Analysis === === Statistical Analysis ===
Line 84: Line 84:
 == retain 1950 as La Nina year == == retain 1950 as La Nina year ==
  
-{{{+<file>
 n=15 n=15
 mean= -286.23 (.1 mm)  mean= -286.23 (.1 mm) 
Line 91: Line 91:
 2*p= 0.14 2*p= 0.14
 90% confidence interval: -612.44 < true mean < 39.96  90% confidence interval: -612.44 < true mean < 39.96 
-resample method 90% interval: -575.3 < true mean < 12.01  +resample method 90% interval: -575.3 < true mean < 12.01 
 +</file>  
  
-=== kick 1950 out as La Nina year === +== kick 1950 out as La Nina year == 
- -575.301945808 12.0111291557 + 
-{{{+<file>
 n= 14   n= 14  
 mean= -415.32 (.1 mm) mean= -415.32 (.1 mm)
Line 103: Line 104:
 90% confidence interval: -667.95   < true mean < -162.69 90% confidence interval: -667.95   < true mean < -162.69
 resample method 90% interval: -644.5 < true mean <  -192.54  resample method 90% interval: -644.5 < true mean <  -192.54 
-}}}+</file> 
 + 
 +=== Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Links ===
  
-== Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Links == 
  
- 1. [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml | NCEP ENSO page]] has animations of recent SST. +  - [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml | NCEP ENSO page]] has animations of recent SST. 
- 1. [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO monitoring page]] +  - [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO monitoring page]] 
- 1. [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions]] +  - [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions]] 
- 1. [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]]  +  - [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]]  
- 1. [[http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/graphs.php | Yearly Climate Graphs for Selected Locations in Central/Western Oklahoma and Western North Texas ]] +  - [[http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/graphs.php | Yearly Climate Graphs for Selected Locations in Central/Western Oklahoma and Western North Texas ]] 
- 1. [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]]+  -  [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]]
  
 On 5 June 2012: [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]] states: ''No climate models favour a return to La Niña.'' As of 16 June 2012, [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]] shows no drought this year in Oklahoma. On 5 June 2012: [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]] states: ''No climate models favour a return to La Niña.'' As of 16 June 2012, [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]] shows no drought this year in Oklahoma.
  
-== Appendix ==+=== Appendix === 
 +<file txt rainbox.txt > 
 +# in the following: st=1 -> La Nina , st=-1-> El Nino 
 +# delta is the JJA anomaly in units of 0.1 mm  
 +#year st delta  
 +1948 0  596.25 
 +1949 0 -103.40 
 +1950 1 1520.96 
 +1951 0  373.87 
 +1952 0 -1149.30 
 +1953 0 -313.70 
 +1954 1 -1358.54 
 +1955 1 -609.56 
 +1956 1 -1181.49 
 +1957 -1 -258.58 
 +1958 0  538.12 
 +1959 0  424.53 
 +1960 0  463.94 
 +1961 0  530.71 
 +1962 0  585.26 
 +1963 -1 -366.67 
 +1964 1 -496.76 
 +1965 -1   47.62 
 +1966 0   55.40 
 +1967 0   44.13 
 +1968 0  143.21 
 +1969 0 -263.35 
 +1970 1 -1019.90 
 +1971 1   85.14 
 +1972 -1  -91.75 
 +1973 1 -239.61 
 +1974 1   30.85 
 +1975 1  137.25 
 +1976 0 -724.09 
 +1977 0  -44.96 
 +1978 0 -768.82 
 +1979 0  511.22 
 +1980 0 -1283.33 
 +1981 0  130.76 
 +1982 -1   10.99 
 +1983 0 -905.43 
 +1984 0 -772.69 
 +1985 1  136.71 
 +1986 0  373.37 
 +1987 -1   85.75 
 +1988 1 -519.55 
 +1989 0 1125.00 
 +1990 0 -540.43 
 +1991 -1  127.18 
 +1992 -1 1236.93 
 +1993 0 -185.67 
 +1994 -1 -184.31 
 +1995 0  641.34 
 +1996 0 1306.06 
 +1997 -1  496.62 
 +1998 1 -838.16 
 +1999 1 -236.21 
 +2000 0 -132.17 
 +2001 0 -915.12 
 +2002 -1    6.17 
 +2003 0   31.09 
 +2004 -1 1120.59 
 +2005 0  597.69 
 +2006 0 -471.55 
 +2007 0 1316.23 
 +2008 0  577.01 
 +2009 -1  271.83 
 +2010 1  295.32 
 +</file>
  
-{{:rainbox.txt}} 
  
okenso.1738880835.txt.gz · Last modified: 2025/02/06 16:27 by admin
Donate Powered by PHP Valid HTML5 Valid CSS Driven by DokuWiki