Differences
This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
| Both sides previous revisionPrevious revision | |
| boyorgirl [2025/12/30 13:37] – admin | boyorgirl [2025/12/30 13:49] (current) – admin |
|---|
| I really should have read [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox|Boy or girl paradox]] more carefully. My epiphany is nothing original. But thanks to the [[https://youtu.be/2Cidn_Z4Vrc?si=4l3nQZwgOB282vIF | Feynman inspiration ]], or I might not have persisted. | I really should have read [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox|Boy or girl paradox]] more carefully. My epiphany is nothing original. But thanks to the [[https://youtu.be/2Cidn_Z4Vrc?si=4l3nQZwgOB282vIF | Feynman inspiration ]], or I might not have persisted. |
| |
| Betty knows that Mary has two children. Betty tells you Mary has at least one boy. What is the probability that Mary has a girl? That depends on how Betty acquired the knowledge. Did Mary tell Betty: "I have at least one boy". Or did Betty see Mary enrolling a boy in youth soccer, during the few minutes that Betty was doing the same? | Betty knows that Mary has two children. Betty tells you Mary has at least one boy. What is the probability that Mary has a girl? That depends on how Betty acquired the knowledge. Did Mary tell Betty: "I have at least one boy". Or did Betty see Mary enrolling a boy in youth soccer, during the few minutes that Betty was doing the same? What if you can only assign probabilities to how Betty acquired the knowledge? You will need to blend the scenarios and get $\frac{1}{2} \le P \le \frac{2}{3}$. |
| |
