Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

--- okenso [2025/02/06 16:25] – admin
+++ okenso [2025/02/06 16:54] (current) – admin
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-=== La Nina and Oklahoma Summer Precipitation ===
+==== La Nina and Oklahoma Summer Precipitation ====
-== NCEP analysis ==
+//from 2012?//
+=== NCEP analysis ===
 Figures are from:
 [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/EC_LNP_index.shtml | ENSO Temperature & Precipitation Composites]]
@@ Line 13: / Line 14: @@
 {{:elnino.jja.precip.gif}}
 ------
-== Reinvestigate NCEP data ==
+=== Reinvestigate NCEP data ===
 Obtain daily data from [[ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/CPC_UNI_PRCP/GAUGE_CONUS/]] for years 1948 through 2010. (The missing data for day 20070226 was faked by substituting an average of 20070225 and 20070227).  Composite into 756 months. Analyze with Python:
@@ Line 41: / Line 42: @@
-The average t-value in the box is {{{t=-1.25}}}.  The t-value of average rain in the box is {{{t=-1.55}}}, and {{{p=.07}}}.  The fraction of the valid data area that lies within the box is {{{f=0.048}}}.  Note that in my [[http://tinyurl.com/windfarm-precip | windfarm study]] I looked for {{{p<.05f}}} to declare significance. Some details of the statistical analysis will appear below.
+The average t-value in the box is ''t=-1.25''.  The t-value of average rain in the box is ''t=-1.55'', and ''p=.07''.  The fraction of the valid data area that lies within the box is ''f=0.048''.  Note that in my [[http://tinyurl.com/windfarm-precip | windfarm study]] I looked for ''p<.05'' to declare significance. Some details of the statistical analysis will appear below.
 ------
@@ Line 74: / Line 75: @@
 {{:jjad1950.png}}
- * To see such a figure for all years, go to [[http://12characters.net/explore/JJAanomaly.html | slide show of JJA rain fall anomalies]].
+  * To see such a figure for all years, go to [[http://12characters.net/explore/JJAanomaly.html | slide show of JJA rain fall anomalies]].
- * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jjasst.html | slide show of JJA SST anomalies ]]
+  * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jjasst.html | slide show of JJA SST anomalies ]]
- * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jja500.html | slide show of JJA 500 mb anomalies ]]
+  * [[http://12characters.net/explore/jja500.html | slide show of JJA 500 mb anomalies ]]
-== Statistical Analysis ==
+=== Statistical Analysis ===
-=== retain 1950 as La Nina year ===
+== retain 1950 as La Nina year ==
-{{{
+<file>
 n=15
 mean= -286.23 (.1 mm)
@@ Line 90: / Line 91: @@
 *p= 0.14
 % confidence interval: -612.44 < true mean < 39.96
 resample method 90% interval: -575.3 < true mean < 12.01
+</file>
-=== kick 1950 out as La Nina year ===
+== kick 1950 out as La Nina year ==
- -575.301945808 12.0111291557
-{{{
+<file>
 n= 14
 mean= -415.32 (.1 mm)
@@ Line 102: / Line 104: @@
 % confidence interval: -667.95   < true mean < -162.69
 resample method 90% interval: -644.5 < true mean <  -192.54
-}}}
+</file>
+=== Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Links ===
-== Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Links ==
-. [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml | NCEP ENSO page]] has animations of recent SST.
+  - [[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml | NCEP ENSO page]] has animations of recent SST.
-. [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO monitoring page]]
+  - [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO monitoring page]]
-. [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions]]
+  - [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml | Australia Bureau of Meteorology Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions]]
-. [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]]
+  - [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]]
-. [[http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/graphs.php | Yearly Climate Graphs for Selected Locations in Central/Western Oklahoma and Western North Texas ]]
+  - [[http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/graphs.php | Yearly Climate Graphs for Selected Locations in Central/Western Oklahoma and Western North Texas ]]
-. [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]]
+  -  [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]]
 On 5 June 2012: [[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ | Australia ENSO wrap-up]] states: ''No climate models favour a return to La Niña.'' As of 16 June 2012, [[http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/year_to_date/oklahoma_south-central_u.s | OCS drought monitoring]] shows no drought this year in Oklahoma.
-== Appendix ==
+=== Appendix ===
+<file txt rainbox.txt >
+# in the following: st=1 -> La Nina , st=-1-> El Nino
+# delta is the JJA anomaly in units of 0.1 mm
+#year st delta
+0  596.25
+0 -103.40
+1 1520.96
+0  373.87
+0 -1149.30
+0 -313.70
+1 -1358.54
+1 -609.56
+1 -1181.49
+-1 -258.58
+0  538.12
+0  424.53
+0  463.94
+0  530.71
+0  585.26
+-1 -366.67
+1 -496.76
+-1   47.62
+0   55.40
+0   44.13
+0  143.21
+0 -263.35
+1 -1019.90
+1   85.14
+-1  -91.75
+1 -239.61
+1   30.85
+1  137.25
+0 -724.09
+0  -44.96
+0 -768.82
+0  511.22
+0 -1283.33
+0  130.76
+-1   10.99
+0 -905.43
+0 -772.69
+1  136.71
+0  373.37
+-1   85.75
+1 -519.55
+0 1125.00
+0 -540.43
+-1  127.18
+-1 1236.93
+0 -185.67
+-1 -184.31
+0  641.34
+0 1306.06
+-1  496.62
+1 -838.16
+1 -236.21
+0 -132.17
+0 -915.12
+-1    6.17
+0   31.09
+-1 1120.59
+0  597.69
+0 -471.55
+0 1316.23
+0  577.01
+-1  271.83
+1  295.32
+</file>
-{{:rainbox.txt}}