Thoughts

boyorgirl

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-12-30T19:49:37+00:00

What is the probability of the other child being a girl? Wikipedia: Boy or girl paradox Reddit: I don't get it Youtube: Internet baffled by probability riddle This is what inspired me to stick with it: Youtube: Feynman inspiration Let P be the probability of at least one of two children being a girl. Mary has two children, if that is all you know, these families are equally probable: BB BG $B_2B_2$$BB$$\frac{1}{2} \le P \le \frac{2}{3}$

crossofgold

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-10-19T14:03:46+00:00

The question of silver (versus gold) was a major issue in the 1896 U.S. presidential election because it touched on deep economic, regional and class tensions — and it was literally about how much money there was, who got it, and who paid for it. Here’s a breakdown of why silver became such a heated issue in that election.

crutem

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-09T17:11:07+00:00

The CRUTEM data from 2014? This is a presentation of some curious results, stemming from a simple Python programming exercise for my introductory programming class, METR 1313. The exercise involved investigating data from the famous CRUTEM dataset, also known as

dustdevils

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-04-13T00:29:50+00:00

Dust devils redux: using numerical python This page shows a revisit to [ Rayleigh-Benard convection as a tool for studying dust devils], but with the computations done with numerical python. It is a substantial upgrade to my old dust devil page. To reproduce these simulations, you may use my ipython notebook: 3D convection, periodic. To reproduce the visualizations, you will need $\zeta=-40$$p=-2$$s$$w=.5$$w=-.5$$c=6$

energycrisis

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-10T02:53:01+00:00

The Energy Crisis: A Summary for Meteorologists Presented on April 15, 2008. Here is the abstract. Dedication to Friedrich Hayek The seminar was dedicated to Friedrich Hayek. With Lester Brown's “Plan B” advocacy for wartime mobilization of the energy industry, which you can read about in this review by TIME, we ignore

ezan

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-04-13T16:05:08+00:00

2-D Fortran CFD code for tornado-like vortices The source code is here: at github The eza in the name is for easy axisymmetric. Perhaps n is new and 3 is version? I believe this code is what I used as the companion axisymmetric code in [ my 2009 QJ article]. It produces slightly difference results than the code for

globalcalming

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-06T20:05:28+00:00

Terawatts of Windpower, Global Calming, and a New Role for Meteorologists Presented as a seminar in May 1, 2008 Total Available Solar and Wind Power The above figure is from the Wikipedia, but with an additional annotation indicating the flux density derived using the total surface area of the Earth, $5.1 \times 10^{14} \mathrm{m}^2$$2R = 126$$R$$ \frac{1}{2} \pi R^2 \rho V^3$$\rho=1\ \mathrm{kg} \ \mathrm{m}^{-3}$$3825 per year on interest. Table B-11 also implies ''fixed O&M costs'' …

kilgallen

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-09-24T18:18:56+00:00

Dorothy Kilgallen — the journalist and television personality who died suddenly in November 1965 — made a few intriguing remarks to people close to her, including her hairdresser, in the days just before her death. From what’s been reported in biographies, press accounts, and later investigations:

kolum

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-04-13T02:17:38+00:00

kolum, a one-dimensional boundary layer model A quote from my [ 2002 article in Monthly Weather Review]: But, in these experiments, grid adaption is a solution looking for a problem. This is rather ugly stuff, and I dare not upload it to github. But here it is: File name extensions are weird, and inconsistent with later projects. (Here,

milankovitch_cycles

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-20T18:25:51+00:00

Milankovitch Cycles I am the author of the 2009 image at wikimedia In February 2025, I uploaded a higher resolution version. Here I offer the files needed to plot it from scratch: Click on this image to navigate to the new 3000 x 3133 version:

modtran

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-19T19:33:42+00:00

Radiative Forcing Experiments with Modtran Reproduce with: Also at github Using Modtran online at U. Chicago We use the website Modtran Infrared Light in the Atmosphere for the calculations. All calculations are 1976 U.S. Standard Atmosphere and no clouds. We assume a certain profile of atmospheric temperature is in equilibrium with the specified atmospheric constituents. The upward irradiance at a certain level (either 20 km or 70 km) is noted for this initial equilibrium profile. …

natgeo

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-09T17:14:20+00:00

Error in National Geographic In November 2015 National Geographic: A blueprint for a carbon-free America. Well, not quite. Read on. The comments reproduced below are explicitly referring to the print edition of National Geographic. Some comments about the big error ---------- Richard Hahn 6 days ago

nestedradiation

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-09T22:40:42+00:00

Nested Radiation Suppose a GCM model is run with 2x CO2, and WRF is nested in the GCM, but with 1x CO2. In other words, the excess CO2 is filtered out as it enters the WRF domain. This page uses the model featured in Radiative Convective Equilibrium to estimate the change, or error, in the infrared heating rate within the WRF domain.$g \frac{\Delta T}{T} \times 10,000 \mathrm{m} $

okenso

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-06T22:54:29+00:00

La Nina and Oklahoma Summer Precipitation from 2012? NCEP analysis Figures are from: ENSO Temperature & Precipitation Composites ---------- Note the relatively large signal in Oklahoma and northern Texas in the upper left of the figure immediately below. There is some “folk lore” here in Norman Oklahoma that La Nina summers tend to be dry. The figure below supports that conjecture.

radiativeconvectiveequilibrium

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-09T22:48:38+00:00

Radiative Convective Equilibrium Here is the code: This page describes a series of simulations with a radiative convective model (RCM), run out to radiative convective equilibrium. The RCM is based on the CRM radiation code , that has been offered online for almost a decade. (The model results shown here are based on the $\mathrm{CO}_2$$\Delta T$

start

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-12-29T22:46:25+00:00

Welcome (return to my main website) New Thoughts * Classic two-child family probabilities December 2025 New in 2025, reboot of old programs * My 3-D Fortran CFD code for tornado-like vortices * Dust devils redux: using numerical python * My 2-D Fortran CFD code for tornado-like vortices * kolum, a one-dimensional boundary layer model Reboot of an old wiki * The Energy Crisis: A Summary for Meteorologists * Terawatts of Windpower, Global Calming, and a New Role for Me…

test

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-12-29T22:35:06+00:00

Test ~~LASTMOD~~

tornadobox

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-04-13T12:58:17+00:00

3-D Fortran CFD code for tornado-like vortices Grab the code: tornadobox at gitbub. This page describes the Fortran program used for [ my 2009 QJ article]. I also still offer a more ancient page that provides some results and animation, but no Fortran program. The coding style evolved from a program passed down to Prof. Fiedler by his dissertation adviser, in the late 1970s. Notable ancient features are the Fortran 77 style, for the $91 \times 91 \times 46$$181 \times 181 \times 91$$91 \tim…

verify

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-07T21:19:56+00:00

Python for Probability of Precipitation Verification from 2014 This page shows my successful attempt to reproduce Verifying probability of precipitation - an example from Finland The data set is available from that page. Here is the direct link: POP_3cat_2003.txt My Python program is available for download below. I reproduced the 3 diagrams for the 24 hour PoP forecast verification. It should be a simple extension to do a verification of the 48 hour forecast, as well at the PoP,,hi,, fo…

weatherbriefer

Anonymous (anonymous@undisclosed.example.com) — 2025-02-09T17:31:07+00:00

Some Weather Briefer Links Evidently from year 2013. I had forgotten about this one. That required some coding: ----------