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| * Prudhoe Bay was the bulk of the North Slope oil. Here is the history and forecast for the entire North Slope: see [[http://www.planetforlife.com/anwr/index.html | Oil and Alaska; The ANWR Controversy ]] and [[http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/Petroleum/projects/EP/Explor_Tech/41817.htm | Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Resources Assessment ]] | * Prudhoe Bay was the bulk of the North Slope oil. Here is the history and forecast for the entire North Slope: see [[http://www.planetforlife.com/anwr/index.html | Oil and Alaska; The ANWR Controversy ]] and [[http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/Petroleum/projects/EP/Explor_Tech/41817.htm | Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Resources Assessment ]] |
| * Saudi Arabia has 240 Gb of oil, or 8.5 cubic miles. | * Saudi Arabia has 240 Gb of oil, or 8.5 cubic miles. |
| * ''It’s no secret anymore that for every nine barrels of oil we consume, we are only discovering one.'' -The BP Statistical Review of World Energy, March 13th, 2008 | * //It’s no secret anymore that for every nine barrels of oil we consume, we are only discovering one.// -The BP Statistical Review of World Energy, March 13th, 2008 |
| * Learn more in the Wikipedia: [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption | World energy resources and consumption]] and [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil | Peak Oil]]. | * Learn more in the Wikipedia: [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption | World energy resources and consumption]] and [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil | Peak Oil]]. |
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| == Watts == | == Watts == |
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| * 1 terawatt = 1 TW = 10^12^ W is convenient unit for measuring world energy consumption. | * 1 terawatt = 1 TW = 10<sup>12</sup> W is convenient unit for measuring world energy consumption. |
| * World energy consumption was 15 TW in 2004. With a global population of 6.5 x 10^9^, per capita consumption was 2300 W. | * World energy consumption was 15 TW in 2004. With a global population of 6.5 x 10<sup>9</sup>, per capita consumption was 2300 W. |
| * Per capita consumption in America was 11,400 W. | * Per capita consumption in America was 11,400 W. |
| * Humans eat about 100 W of food. (Note the fundamental problem in converting food to fuel). | * Humans eat about 100 W of food. (Note the fundamental problem in converting food to fuel). |
| * With 100 W of food, humans can sustain about 10 W of muscle work, averaged over a day. | * With 100 W of food, humans can sustain about 10 W of muscle work, averaged over a day. |
| * 1 gigawatt = 1 GW = 10^9^ W , electrical production from a large nuclear power plant. | * 1 gigawatt = 1 GW = 10<sup>9</sup> W , electrical production from a large nuclear power plant. |
| * 1 megawatt = 1 MW = 10^6^ W, electrical production from a very large, modern wind turbine | * 1 megawatt = 1 MW = 10<sup>6</sup> W, electrical production from a very large, modern wind turbine |
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| == Shell energy scenarios to 2050 == | == Shell energy scenarios to 2050 == |
| === Summary of the Shell Scenarios === | === Summary of the Shell Scenarios === |
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| * In 2050, coal consumption is 2 to 2.5 as large as in 2000. In Blueprints, some of the CO2 is sequestered. Scramble is on a path to increase carbon dioxide ''well above'' 550ppmv. In Blueprint, a long-term path below 550 ppmv is ''feasible''. | * In 2050, coal consumption is 2 to 2.5 as large as in 2000. In Blueprints, some of the CO2 is sequestered. Scramble is on a path to increase carbon dioxide ''well above'' 550ppmv. In Blueprint, a long-term path below 550 ppmv is //feasible//. |
| * Biomass contains non-commercial biomass, for example 3rd world wood cooking fires. Commercial biomass may replace some of that, for example for aviation fuels. But Blueprints contains much less biomass than Scramble. International agreements prevent the deforestation required for increasing biofuel production. | * Biomass contains non-commercial biomass, for example 3rd world wood cooking fires. Commercial biomass may replace some of that, for example for aviation fuels. But Blueprints contains much less biomass than Scramble. International agreements prevent the deforestation required for increasing biofuel production. |
| * There is more nuclear energy and oil in Blueprint, arising from the fact that the world is more ordered. | * There is more nuclear energy and oil in Blueprint, arising from the fact that the world is more ordered. |
| * Both scenarios have a mysterious large '''other'''. These plots were drafted from the data in the appendix ''Summary quantification''. '''Other''' denotes ''Other Renewables''. This may be a mistake in the appendix. There are no explicitly defined ''Other Renewables'' forecasted - in this report or elsewhere - to produce more power than wind in 2050. | * Both scenarios have a mysterious large //other//. These plots were drafted from the data in the appendix //Summary quantification//. //Other// denotes //Other Renewables//. This may be a mistake in the appendix. There are no explicitly defined //Other Renewables// forecasted - in this report or elsewhere - to produce more power than wind in 2050. |
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| == The Coal Dilemma == | == The Coal Dilemma == |
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| * [[http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3788|Hansen to Australian PM: stop coal plants now]]. | * [[http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3788|Hansen to Australian PM: stop coal plants now]]. |
| * It is doubtful that the Australian PM could do that, given [[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/world/europe/23coal.html?ex=1367294400&en=ce9b1cffcc8da424&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink| Europe Turns Back to Coal, Raising Climate Fears ]] or [[http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/31/the-immorality-of-chinas-coal-policy-is-breathtaking-literally-part-i/|China's coal investment]] or [[http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/business/worldbusiness/24power.html?ex=1350964800&en=a830d8de74cbc4f1&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink |China’s Green Energy Gap ]]. China ''built 114,000 megawatts of fossil-fuel-based generating capacity last year''. That is .114 TWe, which could consume about .3 TW of coal! | * It is doubtful that the Australian PM could do that, given [[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/world/europe/23coal.html?ex=1367294400&en=ce9b1cffcc8da424&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink| Europe Turns Back to Coal, Raising Climate Fears ]] or [[http://climateprogress.org/2007/10/31/the-immorality-of-chinas-coal-policy-is-breathtaking-literally-part-i/|China's coal investment]] or [[http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/business/worldbusiness/24power.html?ex=1350964800&en=a830d8de74cbc4f1&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink |China’s Green Energy Gap ]]. China **built 114,000 megawatts of fossil-fuel-based generating capacity last year**. That is .114 TWe, which could consume about .3 TW of coal! |
| * Or given that [[http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/features/0408_mit.htm | MIT's Emanuel Rethinking Warming/Hurricanes]] | * Or given that [[http://www.yaleclimatemediaforum.org/features/0408_mit.htm | MIT's Emanuel Rethinking Warming/Hurricanes]] |
| * Or given Dr. Kevin Vranes's statement: [[http://scienceblogs.com/nosenada/2006/12/so_what_happened_at_agu_last_w.php | But now they are listening. Now they do believe us. Now they say they're ready to take action. And now we're wondering if we didn't create a monster. We're wondering if they realize how uncertain our projections of future climate are. ]] | * Or given Dr. Kevin Vranes's statement: [[http://scienceblogs.com/nosenada/2006/12/so_what_happened_at_agu_last_w.php | But now they are listening. Now they do believe us. Now they say they're ready to take action. And now we're wondering if we didn't create a monster. We're wondering if they realize how uncertain our projections of future climate are. ]] |
| * Is it really possible for a group of politicians to slay the coal industry? What would be the political consequences? William Shakespeare's [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Caesar_(play) | Julius Caesar ]] might be relevant. You are invited you to watch [[http://youtube.com/watch?v=eNRoeMvzMVo | Marlon Brando as Marc Antony ]] (think ''Julius Carbon''). | * Is it really possible for a group of politicians to slay the coal industry? What would be the political consequences? William Shakespeare's [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Caesar_(play) | Julius Caesar ]] might be relevant. You are invited you to watch [[http://youtube.com/watch?v=eNRoeMvzMVo | Marlon Brando as Marc Antony ]] (think ''Julius Carbon''). |
| * And on May 30, 2008: [[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/30/business/30coal.html?ex=1369886400&en=7fc56d96af4f08b6&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink | Mounting Costs Slow the Push for Clean Coal]] | * And on May 30, 2008: [[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/30/business/30coal.html?ex=1369886400&en=7fc56d96af4f08b6&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink | Mounting Costs Slow the Push for Clean Coal]] |
| * Here is an example of capital investment in coal: [[http://www.rwestoen.pl/index.php?id=921&L=1 | 1.5 billion euros for a 800 MW plant]] or '''$2.71 per Watt'''. The costs of fuel for the plant will be comparable to the interest being paid on the capital. Here is a comparison of [[ http://www.firsturanium.com/cws/projects/firsturanium/uranium_industry.jsp | capital and operating costs in 2005]]. You can work out the 2007 costs of fuel from the [[http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10145492 | graph at bottom of this 2007 story]]. Apparently in 2005, the costs for coal are a bit lower than my estimate of a wholesale cost of $0.023 per kWh to pay off capital investment on the power plant (from the RWE story above), and $0.022 per KWh for coal, for that modern 46% efficient plant. In 2008, Oklahoma Gas and Electric sells electricity to my home for $0.10 per KWh. | * Here is an example of capital investment in coal: [[http://www.rwestoen.pl/index.php?id=921&L=1 | 1.5 billion euros for a 800 MW plant]] or \$2.71 per Watt. The costs of fuel for the plant will be comparable to the interest being paid on the capital. Here is a comparison of [[ http://www.firsturanium.com/cws/projects/firsturanium/uranium_industry.jsp | capital and operating costs in 2005]]. You can work out the 2007 costs of fuel from the [[http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10145492 | graph at bottom of this 2007 story]]. Apparently in 2005, the costs for coal are a bit lower than my estimate of a wholesale cost of \$0.023 per kWh to pay off capital investment on the power plant (from the RWE story above), and \$0.022 per KWh for coal, for that modern 46% efficient plant. In 2008, Oklahoma Gas and Electric sells electricity to my home for \$0.10 per KWh. |
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| == Biofuels == | == Biofuels == |
| == Nuclear Power == | == Nuclear Power == |
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| * A new 1.6 GW nuclear power plant: [[http://virtual.finland.fi/netcomm/news/showarticle.asp?Thread=&intNWSAID=65266&contlan=&CatTypeNumber=3&intThreadPosition=1&intCatID |World's most powerful nuclear power plant under construction at Olkiluoto]]. The construction cost will be about 5 billion US dollars, or about '''$3.12 per Watt''', as inferred from [[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFh1ySJ.lYQc&refer=home | Nuclear Bid to Rival Coal Chilled by Flaws, Delay in Finland]] | * A new 1.6 GW nuclear power plant: [[http://virtual.finland.fi/netcomm/news/showarticle.asp?Thread=&intNWSAID=65266&contlan=&CatTypeNumber=3&intThreadPosition=1&intCatID |World's most powerful nuclear power plant under construction at Olkiluoto]]. The construction cost will be about 5 billion US dollars, or about \$3.12 per Watt, as inferred from [[http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFh1ySJ.lYQc&refer=home | Nuclear Bid to Rival Coal Chilled by Flaws, Delay in Finland]] |
| * New nuclear construction planned for the United States: [[http://www2.snl.com/irweblinkx/file.aspx?IID=4057436&FID=4916766 | NRG Energy Submits Application for New 2,700 Megawatt Nuclear Plant in South Texas ]]; First nuclear plant license application in 29 year (in US). | * New nuclear construction planned for the United States: [[http://www2.snl.com/irweblinkx/file.aspx?IID=4057436&FID=4916766 | NRG Energy Submits Application for New 2,700 Megawatt Nuclear Plant in South Texas ]]; First nuclear plant license application in 29 year (in US). |
| * Europe is reconsidering its anti-nuclear stance: [[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/23/world/europe/23nukes.html?ex=1369281600&en=071d7e554b01680e&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink | Italy Plans to Resume Building Atomic Plants ]]. | * Europe is reconsidering its anti-nuclear stance: [[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/23/world/europe/23nukes.html?ex=1369281600&en=071d7e554b01680e&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink | Italy Plans to Resume Building Atomic Plants ]]. |
